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Darren Samuelsohn
President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans are talking the same talk when it comes to energy bill compromises.
Now let's see what happens when they get into a room together.
Many of the smaller energy measures like electric vehicles, renewable energy tax credits and efficiency incentives that the left refused to relinquish while it was pushing the ill-fated cap-and-trade climate bill could in theory be easy bipartisan victories.
But last Tuesday's tidal wave didn't change the hard reality that energy policy historically breaks down more along regional lines than partisan ones. Come January, it will still be the same coal and Rust Belt lawmakers battling Southern oil and nuclear power interests and renewables advocates from the coasts and Great Plains.
Energy policy dynamics only get trickier as both parties dig their trenches for the 2012 presidential election and Republicans add dozens of tea party-backed lawmakers with little interest in new government spending.
"It's always easier for the Hill to do nothing than to do something," said Christine Tezak, senior energy and environmental policy research analyst for investment firm Robert W. Baird & Co.
The House
Rep. Fred Upton (R-Mich.) remains the front-runner to take over the Energy and Commerce Committee, despite the campaign from former Chairman Joe Barton (R-Texas).
Upton and other Republicans, such as Barton and likely Oversight and Government Reform Committee Chairman Darrell Issa of California, are tripping over themselves to get started investigating the Obama administration. First in line is the Environmental Protection Agency’s climate regulations and the role of White House energy adviser Carol Browner, Upton wrote in Human Events earlier this week.
Republicans have pressed an “all of the above” energy policy while in the minority and expect no changes come January. Upton told POLITICO he supports renewables, hydroelectric, biomass, nuclear and coal, but offered few hints about specific legislative plans.
“We ought to be encouraging our electricity producers, rather then penalizing the users of electricity," Upton said.
At the Natural Resources Committee, Washington Rep. Doc Hastings is poised to take over and promote “domestic energy production through an all-of-the-above energy plan,” he said this week.
Republicans and the oil industry have bristled at what they say is the slow pace of issuing offshore drilling permits at the Interior Department, especially after this summer’s Gulf of Mexico oil spill. Expect to see a push to force Interior to speed up the process, as well as renewed efforts to open up new offshore areas in Alaska and the Atlantic Ocean to drilling. And at some point over the next two years, oil drilling in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge will have a moment in the sun.
Complicating any House energy push are the 60 Republican freshmen, many of whom are coming to Washington with a mandate from their supporters to cut spending and the size of government. Those members would undoubtedly support efforts to curtail EPA’s ability to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, but they may oppose spending billions of dollars on loan guarantees for new nuclear power plants or carbon sequestration technologies.
Luke Popovich, a spokesman at the National Mining Association, likes what he hears from GOP leaders like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell when it comes to "clean coal" technology. But he's not so sure about the freshmen in both chambers.
“Some may not share our view on the importance of supporting costly advanced coal technology — either because of spending concerns or because it could be construed as a tacit acceptance of global warming," he said.
The Senate
Divided government won’t be an obstacle for Sen. Jeff Bingaman, chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. The New Mexico Democrat prides himself on passing bills with GOP support, including a 2009 committee measure that included a renewable electricity standard and increased offshore oil drilling.
At the time, that bill was intended to be combined with a cap-and-trade measure, creating a giant energy omnibus. But as interest in climate legislation waned, several moderates suggested the Senate proceed with the “energy-only” measure. With Democrats controlling 53 votes in the Senate next year, down from 59, the atmosphere could be set for a deal maker like Bingaman to take charge.
Bingaman is also helped by the fact his panel has jurisdiction over most of the low-hanging legislative fruit that Obama has suggested could be the centerpiece of any energy plan, such as nuclear power and “clean coal” technology.
McConnell last Friday told The Wall Street Journal he believes “energy is an area where there is the potential for a bipartisan accomplishment of some consequence.”
“Most people on both sides of the aisle are very enthusiastic about plug-in cars,” he said. “Nuclear power, more popular on my side of the aisle than on theirs, [and there is] bipartisan support, however, for that, for clean coal technology.”
But each of these ideas carries some baggage. For starters, environmentalists and some Democrats fret that rapid new demand for electric vehicles will lead to the construction of dozens of new coal-fired power plants that will be around for half a century and negate any reductions in greenhouse gases or fossil fuel dependence. Both parties also fought this summer over how to regulate the controversial technique of hydraulic fracturing that's used to extract onshore natural gas, with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid trying to get the drillers to disclose the chemicals they pump into the ground.
And longtime nuclear power opponents like Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Chairman Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) offered tempered support this year for more nuclear plants, but her shift came as part of the price of admission to a sweeping climate bill.
The White House
Obama floated some possible areas ripe for deal making during his postelection news conference at the White House.
He suggested there is “broad agreement that we’ve got terrific natural gas resources in this country. Are we doing everything we can to develop those?”
On electric cars: “There's a lot of agreement around the need to make sure that electric cars are developed here in the United States, that we don't fall behind other countries. Are there things that we can do to encourage that?”
And nuclear power: “There's been discussion about how we can restart our nuclear industry as a means of reducing our dependence on foreign oil and reducing greenhouse gases. Is that an area where we can move forward?”
But as with the climate debate over the past two years, it’s unclear whether the White House will step forward with specific legislative proposals or take a more passive approach and let Congress write the bill.
The new Congress also has environmentalists in an awkward spot. They enter this new phase of Obama's term without the type of coherent message they had in January 2009, when the president was expected to make good on a campaign promise of implementing carbon caps.
"Our goals remain the same, but we've got to have an open mind about how to achieve those goals and take into account the new folks, what their perspectives are and listen to their ideas," said Fred Krupp, president of the Environmental Defense Fund. "We need to be open to new ideas, and we certainly are."
The Sierra Club is pouring a record amount of resources into shutting down coal plants and preventing the construction of new ones. Several other green groups have pledged to play defense against Republicans and moderate Democrats who want to strip EPA of its authority to regulate for greenhouse gas emissions.
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Scotts Contracting 